One worry is that the ‘sudden stop’ currently underway in the global economy sets off a secondary chain reaction through the financial system.

They have laid out six conditions before confidence is restored, arguing that markets do not normally hit bottom in recessionary downturns until investors can see clearly what the tail risks and where the price floor lies. “Given the amount of policy support announced each day, a temporary bounce could happen at any time,” they said. Kamakshya Trivedi and Zach Pandl from Goldman Sachs have until now advised clients to batten down the hatches - and warn that it is still too early to jump back in - but they are preparing to switch gears. That is the moment watched closely by hedge funds and traders when an inflexion point nears, in this case when the number of new deaths each day from coronavirus finally peaks - or even before it peaks - and is seen to be on a decelerating trajectory. Investors will rush back into alluringly cheap assets as soon as they see the “second derivative” begin to turn.

We’re going to have to make some difficult trade-offs,” said Larry Kudlow, head of the National Economic Council. “At some point you have to ask yourself whether the shutdown is doing more harm than good. It is the new refrain from the White House staff. We cannot let the cure be worse than the problem,” he said. “Our country wasn’t built to be shut down. President Donald Trump risks making matters worse for the US economy by suggesting that restrictive measures (very mild in two-thirds of the country) might be relaxed within a week.

That is a key reason why the greatest rescue in economic history has so far struggled to restore lasting confidence. The stimulus will be exhausted before the pandemic is brought under control. Monetary and fiscal safety nets are ultimately inadequate if Western democracies - chiefly the US at this point - dabble with half measures that prolong the agony. The only sure circuit-breaker for global markets is evidence that Europe and America have a credible policy to contain Covid-19, and that means a full lockdown followed later by an East Asian tracing regime.

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